Global ratings agency S&P Global Ratings has upgraded Nigeria’s long-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings to “B” from “B-”, citing improving economic fundamentals, stronger external balances, and rising domestic refining capacity.
A major highlight in the assessment was the operational impact of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals, which S&P described as a key driver of Nigeria’s improving economic outlook.
According to the report, the refinery’s ramp-up to near full capacity is helping Nigeria reduce dependence on imported refined petroleum products, strengthen its current account balance, and improve foreign exchange liquidity.
S&P noted that Nigeria’s external position has benefited significantly from reduced fuel importation, fuel subsidy removal, exchange rate liberalisation, and increased oil production.
The agency stated:
“Significant refining capacity is now also online; Dangote Industries Ltd.’s large scale refinery and petrochemical complex has ramped up to near its maximum capacity of 650,000 barrels per day.”
Stronger External Reserves and Economic Outlook
The report also revealed that Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves have risen from about $33 billion in 2023 to nearly $50 billion in early 2026, supported partly by reduced import demand following the refinery’s commencement of operations.
S&P projected that Nigeria’s current account surplus would improve to 5.8% of GDP in 2026, up from 4.8% in 2025, driven by increased domestic refining and hydrocarbon exports.
The agency further stated that Nigeria is gradually transitioning from a crude oil–export dependent economy to a more diversified system with stronger industrial and refining capacity.
Expansion Plans and Long-Term Impact
S&P also highlighted expansion plans by Dangote Industries Limited to conduct feasibility studies for scaling refining capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day, which could further strengthen Nigeria’s external position.
The report added that ongoing rehabilitation of local refineries, alongside policy reforms, could enhance energy security and reduce exposure to global supply shocks.
Reforms Supporting Recovery
S&P linked Nigeria’s improved macroeconomic outlook to reforms introduced since 2023, including exchange rate liberalisation, fiscal adjustments, improved oil output, and higher revenue remittances.
Despite challenges such as inflation, a narrow tax base, and low formal employment, the agency maintained a stable outlook, noting that reforms continue to support investor confidence and non-oil sector growth.