In about 31 days from now, the much anticipated presidential election will take place throughout the 36 states of the federation, including Abuja.
Some commentators especially in the ruling party, APC, have already given the victory to Asiwaju Ahmed Tinubu. They base their arguments on the number of states APC is administering as well as the noise going on in the southwest concerning the "Awa Lokan" slogan.
While I do not blame them for concluding in that manner, I disagree vehemently with them. I say, with humility that, such people have allowed their love for their party, their hatred for the opposition as well as the "Awalokan" slogan to engulf them to the extent that they could not think objectively any longer. They fail to know that two elections cannot be of the same factors. My position is supported by the following reasons;
1. The factors of the last two elections are not the same in this election.
2. Sitting governors do lose elections. So thinking that the APC must retain all the states where they have governors is a fallacy. Even Buhari being a president under APC did not guarantee some of his party governors from losing elections.
3. Buhari was on the ballot in the last elections, but he is not on the ballot now, so, those who worked and voted for Buhari in the North, most especially, in the last election can swing their votes for Atiku the way the majority in the south-west will give their votes to Tinubu as their kinsman.
4. Ethnicity will prevail in this presidential election as most votes are done on ethnic lines.
5. Religious consideration too, will take its toll in the next election.
6. Obi factor. This factor is a serious factor against Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu. I have heard some inexperienced politicians arguing that Obi has come to spoil Atiku's chance by dividing his likely votes enormously. I see them as being inexperienced as they don't know that Peter Obi's participation in the election has come to do more harm to Tinubu's chance than Atiku's. The reason is that the election would have gone on a regional basis if Obi had not contested.
This means that more people in the south would have voted for Tinubu than Atiku especially when Buhari who is the incumbent and the outgoing is from the North. They believe that another northerner cannot take over from Buhari. These people who are in the majority would have given their votes to Tinubu, but now, Obi has succeeded in winning those people to his side.
7. Youth factor. It is no more news that more people including the youths who did not have voters card to vote in the last election have trooped to the INEC offices to collect their PVCs with the aim of voting for Peter Obi. If Obi had not been in the race, most of these set of people would have voted for Tinubu as most of them are from the south.
8. G5 factor. A lot of APC members are already being over joyous because of the disagreement between the G5 and Atiku. Unfortunately, they do not know that it endears Atiku to the people of the north who did not initially support him. They believe that the southerners are conspiring against their son.
With these few lines of analysis above, it is very clear that while Alhaji Atiku Abubakar does not have much contention to worry about in the north, the south here appears to be the battleground where the duo of Atiku and Obi will slug it out with Tinubu and share the votes, even when Tinubu will certainly have the largest number of votes.
So, it doesn't take a soothsayer to predict that Atiku will beat Tinubu convincingly let alone other candidates of lesser strength.
Sunday Menukuro writes from his 'Agbalagbulu Okun' Badagryseasides base, Lagos state.
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